Central Banks Face a Year of Mounting Challenges

El-Erian revient tout d’abord sur le changement de tonalité monétaire de la 2ème partie de l’année 2019, bien visible dans le graphique de Morgan Stanley ci-dessus :

“This dramatic policy turnaround was particularly curious in two ways. First, it materialized despite growing discomfort – both within and outside central banks – about the collateral damage and unintended consequences of prolonged reliance on ultra-loose monetary policy. If anything, this discomfort had grown throughout the year, owing to the negative impact of ultra-low and negative rates on economic dynamism and financial stability.”

Sans aucun doute, l’activisme des banques centrales et la baisse de taux qui en a résulté sont les principaux facteurs de valorisation de l’année 2019 – même si le terme de valorisation n’a probablement plus la même signification pour tout le monde :

“By allowing financial markets again to dictate monetary-policy changes, both the ECB and the Fed poured more fuel on a fire that has been raging for years. Financial markets have been driven from one record high to another, regardless of the underlying economic fundamentals, because traders and investors have been conditioned to believe that central banks are their BFFs (“best friends forever”).”

Enfin la lune de miel entre entre politique monétaire et marchés financiers, ou plus généralement entre autorités publiques et la population, pourrait bein avoir basculé en 2019:

“Moreover, around the world, there has been a generalized loss of trust in institutions and expert opinion, as well as a deep sense of marginalization and alienation among significant segments of society. Political polarization is more intense, and many democracies are undergoing uncertain transitions. Also, although the trade tensions between the United States and China have been temporarily alleviated by a “phase one” deal, the underlying sources of conflict have hardly been resolved.”

(Beaucoup) plus à suivre …

Jacques