Fiscal policy Archives - UN BLOG AVEC VUE

US economic policies at the crossroads

Jacques — Fri, 16 Nov 2018 14:17:33 +0000

Another way to appreciate the fundamental ‘change of regime’ that is shaking the markets throughout the world. Economic policies are now forced to get back to something less unconventional, a process that some dubbed a ‘beautiful normalization’, while others talked about something boring ‘as watching a paint dry’. Really? The markets could have another view. Regime change Please consider ‘Federal […]

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Balance budgétaire US et valorisation du risque de crédit souverain

Jacques — Fri, 13 Apr 2018 12:14:21 +0000

Balance budgétaire US Les taux peuvent-ils augmenter dans un contexte de croissance et d’inflation atones ? Nous suggérons que cela peut se produire en cas de détérioration rapide du crédit comme, par exemple, une augmentation significative de la dette en pourcentage de sa capacité de financement. Illustration chiffrée ci-dessous par Goldman Sachs via ZeroHedge et les dernières données du […]

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FX volatility: a balancing act

Jacques — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 04:50:32 +0000

In this post we take a closer look at the recent dynamics of the USD. Relative expectations and economic surprises are now increasingly reckoned as a powerful short term driver of the USD. Yet it looks even more important to figure out how and where these expectations originated. We view the recent volatility spikes as a result of bizarre policy […]

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USD: Game of expectations

Jacques — Fri, 01 Sep 2017 12:22:27 +0000

The Wall Street Journal digs into the recent equity valuation boost foreseen in our previous note. Beware however, the currency move behind it may be temporary. Please consider ‘Watch Out: The Weak Dollar Gives Shareholders Money Illusion’ by James Mackintosh. Even if ‘calling the direction of a currency is always a gamble’, Mackintosh rightly says, the idea of some USD […]

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Banks, the yield curve and the USD

Jacques — Tue, 29 Aug 2017 11:13:38 +0000

The US banking sector had a bumpy ride recently, almost as rocky as the mountain of expectations surrounding the Trump trade. Ben McLannahan of the Financial Times reviews this intriguing relationship from the inside, via the operations of some top banking executives. See our propositions at the end of this post. We take a wider macro-financial stance by assessing some […]

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UK: peak economy and peak public

Jacques — Fri, 05 May 2017 14:52:56 +0000

George Magnus seems to share the idea of some economic timing behind the recent announcement of a snap general election by Mrs. May. We look at this under the lenses of the causal relationship between economic and social conditions. Abstracts from his site, the full article can be found on Prospect : (emphasis ours) In announcing the June General Election, […]

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The real effect of fiscal guidance: circle or circus ?

Jacques — Wed, 01 Mar 2017 09:58:40 +0000

Same markets, same statistics, two sets of propositions. Make your mind ! Is the ‘Trump effect’ real ? The question looks a bit incongruous so the economic indicators and the financial markets have been prone to a strong up move since the election day. Let us reformulate then: what is the real effect of the US election on the economy […]

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Another emerging tantrum ?

Jacques — Tue, 22 Nov 2016 16:14:50 +0000

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