English Archives - UN BLOG AVEC VUE

US economic policies at the crossroads

Jacques — Fri, 16 Nov 2018 14:17:33 +0000

Another way to appreciate the fundamental ‘change of regime’ that is shaking the markets throughout the world. Economic policies are now forced to get back to something less unconventional, a process that some dubbed a ‘beautiful normalization’, while others talked about something boring ‘as watching a paint dry’. Really? The markets could have another view. Regime change Please consider ‘Federal […]

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MACD: Ooh

Jacques — Fri, 16 Mar 2018 09:29:01 +0000

Death cross, falling knife, dead cat bounce and MACD divergence : the bitcoin market seems to give some head- (and shoulders) ache to the marketing guy. For the techs of yours, Bloomberg reports “Bitcoin’s ‘Death Cross’ Looms as Strategist Eyes $ 2’800 Level” : “Bitcoin’s 50-day moving average has dropped to the closest proximity to its 200-day moving average in […]

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Can corporate earnings be left unattended ?

Jacques — Wed, 13 Dec 2017 05:30:21 +0000

The spike of earnings that hides behind the recent equity run-up has a lot to do with peculiar business incentives. Micro incentives can have deep macro implications. This post drives you through several financial institutions such as Société Générale, the BIS or the IMF. It underpins some of the blog’s usual suspects : micro and macro-credit, equity valuation, financial stability […]

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Valuing equity valuation

Jacques — Wed, 22 Nov 2017 05:50:11 +0000

Equity valuation has been a hot topic of late. Rightly so. The Big Picture drew our attention on this interesting paper about the cyclically adjusted PE, the famous equity valuation measure also known as the CAPE or Shiller PE. Kevin J. Lansing from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco adds his own voice to the valuation debate by regressing […]

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Low (inflation) is in the air

Jacques — Thu, 28 Sep 2017 04:45:47 +0000

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When China drives the ‘financial and international developments’ of the Fed

Jacques — Fri, 22 Sep 2017 05:45:47 +0000

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And further taper guidance by the Bank of England

Jacques — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 14:04:04 +0000

Further market developments following the flow of taper guidance issued recently … this time by the Bank of England. As a reminder, the BoE issued some rather unusual guidance yesterday. As the FT’s suggests in “Hawkish BoE spurs markets to revise rate expectations”, the move could work as a kind of market test ahead of the next Monetary Policy Committee: […]

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Additional taper guidance by the ECB

Jacques — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 10:01:41 +0000

The European Central Bank provides additional guidance about its own version of monetary policy tapering, almost live from the Eurofi Financial Forum of Tallin. Please consider “Monetary policy – what’s next?” by Sabine Lautenschläger of the ECB: (emphasis added) “Monetary policy has changed significantly since the financial crisis. For many years we have pursued a highly expansionary monetary policy stance. […]

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FX volatility: a balancing act

Jacques — Fri, 15 Sep 2017 04:50:32 +0000

In this post we take a closer look at the recent dynamics of the USD. Relative expectations and economic surprises are now increasingly reckoned as a powerful short term driver of the USD. Yet it looks even more important to figure out how and where these expectations originated. We view the recent volatility spikes as a result of bizarre policy […]

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USD: Game of expectations

Jacques — Fri, 01 Sep 2017 12:22:27 +0000

The Wall Street Journal digs into the recent equity valuation boost foreseen in our previous note. Beware however, the currency move behind it may be temporary. Please consider ‘Watch Out: The Weak Dollar Gives Shareholders Money Illusion’ by James Mackintosh. Even if ‘calling the direction of a currency is always a gamble’, Mackintosh rightly says, the idea of some USD […]

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