Thank you Sébastien, very nice reading you on the blog.

I couldn’t agree more – apologies for those expecting some harder debate here 🙂
Yet I don’t see the breakout you’re referring to, at least for the time being.

I would give some room of manoeuvre around your preferred technical support, as I believe the USD captures a lot of noise surrounding economic expectations.
The current weakness of the USD looks compounded by disenchanted US economic expectations and euphoric European ones. In other words, the EURUSD could well be overshooting some of the cheap guidance that characterized both sides of the Atlantic recently. By trying to quantify this using simple time series, I came to a pretty wide range of 1.18 – 1.25 vs EUR.

As the saying goes however: it is difficult to make predictions, especially about the future. That was probably meant for FX markets.

Thank you for commenting and sharing,

Jacques

Thank you for your very clear and forward-looking analysis.

USD has just broken below its multi-year trading range… and no technical support in sight.
Numerous and massive implications for asset allocation & portfolio construction shall the USD weaken further from here.

Best regards,
Sébastien

Good to read you André.
Agreed. I have focused on several topics that could support your assessment, in particular the valuation boost provided by the USD.
More to come, thanks for commenting.

Thank you for sharing this and I think there is absolutely nothing wrong with your question: Smart to ‘take some chips off the table’ ?